Why Harry Kane will not finish as the Bundesliga’s top goalscorer

The arrival of Harry Kane certainly demanded the attention of football fans across the globe. England’s captain – as well as their all time leading goalscorer – departed his homeland and the Premier League for Germany and the Bundesliga.

A move that will be analysed and scrutinised long after Harry Kane decides to hang up his boots; it truly is a monumental statement from the Rekordmeister. Nevertheless, while the search for Bundesliga titles and Champions League winners medals will undoubtedly be how the Englishman’s legacy is remembered in Bavaria, how likely is it that he will be remembered for the goals he scores?

Unless Kane is to smash Robert Lewandowski’s record of 41 goals in a single Bundesliga campaign, then it is unlikely – that in the long-term – the former Tottenham striker will be heralded for his goalscoring antics in the Bundesliga. Nevertheless, in the short-term, will he even be able to finish the season as the league’s top marksmen?

It is not a question of will Kane score, it is simply a question of just how many. So far this season, the 30-year-old has collected three goals in as many Bundesliga outings. But currently, there are four players who can boast a better return than the Bayern striker.

Stuttgart’s Serhou Guirassy leads the way with five goals, while Victor Boniface, Jonas Wind, and Kevin Behrens are tied with four goals each. While only three matchday’s have been played in the Bundesliga, all four strikers will believe that their fine form will continue. 

Stuttgart have been transformed under Sebastian Hoeneß, as Die Roten look to fight for European qualification. Guirassy’s five strikes have come from just eleven shots and a 2.6 Xg, which is remarkably similar to Kane’s 13 shots and 2.7 XG. If the 27-year-old can avoid injury, there is little reason to believe he can fire Stuttgart up the table and outscore Kane.

As for Victor Boniface, Bayer Leverkusen look like a side that are capable of challenging the Rekordmeister for the Bundesliga title this season. The Nigerian striker has already been able to offload a monstrous 21 shots from three games, which is almost double that of the Bayern striker. If Leverkusen can keep supplying their new recruit then he could be Kane’s main competitor. 

Nevertheless, one cannot forget the fine work of Wind and Behrens thus far, but whether they can continue their rich vein of form is harder to foresee. Wolfsburg’s consistency has been an issue under Niko Kovač, while Union’s low shot creation could prove a problem for Behrens. However, the Bundesliga is always full of surprises, so write them off at your peril.

Nonetheless, what Bayern Munich and Harry Kane have in common is their relentless nature. Scoring goals is their shared DNA, and envisioning the England captain not being the top scorer in the league for a side that scores more than anyone else is unimaginable.

But, there is already validation behind certain players that the feat is possible. If anyone is to do the unimaginable they would have to continue defying their respected Xg, but if Union Berlin have taught the Bundesliga anything, it is that expected goals is certainly not a stat to take too seriously. 

GGFN | Will Shopland

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