ANALYSIS | Most unlikely Bundesliga 2020-21 results

Here we’ll look over the most unlikely results of this Bundelisga season.

We’ll start with the most against-the-odds victories:

  • Even on the rare occasions when they managed to win, Bremen and Schalke still weren’t necessarily good.
  • Leipzig certainly had some against-the-odds defeats.
  • Bielfeld and Freiburg certainly had some unlikely victories.
  • The latter’s games against Stuttgart were remarkable – over the two matches, Pellegrino Matarazzo’s side managed 52 shots to Freiburg’s 17, but lost both of them.
  • Something that really stands out is that undeserved/freak wins – especially in xG terms – were far less of a feature in the Bundesliga than in the other big five European leagues.


No German game ranked in the top 20 overall for xG upsets. The most against-the-odds victory xG-wise in the Bundesliga, Freiburg’s 2-1 win over Stuttgart in January, was only ranked 22nd.

Next, we’ll look at the season’s most unlikely draws:

Even on the occasions when they managed to draw, Schalke still weren’t necessarily good.

  • A win in any of those unfortunate draws with Bielefeld, Bremen and Stuttgart would have put Frankfurt in the Champions League.
  • Those flattering draws and victories were what kept Bielefeld out of the relegation zone.


Finally, here are the Bundesliga’s most unlikely clean sheets:

  • Wolfsburg took an extraordinary 42 shots against Dortmund in the league without scoring once.


Warren Pegg

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