The maths behind Schalke 04’s possible survival

As reported by SportBild, wins for Schalke 04 against their table rivals won’t be enough to keep them in the Bundesliga this season. Here’s the math behind the royal blues’ possible survival. 

Unbeaten in six Bundesliga games and coming off back-to-back wins, Schalke have once again made the relegation zone a level playing field. Game-by-game, Thomas Reis’ men have been picking up points and now sit in 17th position on 19 points. VfL Bochum (18th) and TSG Hoffenheim, (16th), and VfB Stuttgart (15th) also have the same amount of points. 

This is a first for the Bundesliga. The bottom four clubs have never been on the same amount of points after matchday 23. 

Only one club has survived relegation with fewer than 31 points. That was Hamburg SV in 2013/14 with just 27 points. This is why many statisticians set 31 points as the survival benchmark. For Schalke to achieve this number, they would need 12 points from their remaining 11 games. 

However, in more recent years, 33 points has been the actual number that clubs need in order to stay in the Bundesliga. This would mean that Thomas Reis’ side needs at least 14 points from 11 games. 

This means only victories against rival clubs won’t be enough to keep the royal blues afloat. Schalke still have to play Hertha Berlin, Augsburg, and TSG Hoffenheim. With wins against these teams alone would leave them 4 or 5 points short. Their other 8 games include Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen, SC Freiburg, Werder Bremen, Mainz 05, Bayern Munich, Eintracht Frankfurt, and RB Leipzig. Schalke only managed to beat Mainz earlier in the season and failed to win any of the other 7 fixtures. 

This means that Schalke are going to have to pull two extra wins against higher opponents whilst beating those around them. A tough feat for any club. However, a derby game against BVB this weekend would be the perfect start to their great escape. 

GGFN | Jamie Allen

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